People are worse at predicting whether a sports team will win, lose, or tie when they bet on the final score than when they bet on the overall outcome, according to a new study published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.
Examining sports betting data from both the real world and the lab, psychological scientist Kwanho Suk and colleagues at Korea University Business School found that people who relied on more detailed information were actually less accurate in their predictions about sports match outcomes.
These results stand in contrast to the conventional wisdom that thoughtful deliberation improves decision-making.
"Our research suggests that predicting results -- at least for sports matches -- in a less deliberate way can actually improve prediction accuracy," explained Suk.
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